JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/7/20

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, how's it going?

Today I am knee-deep in trying to make a worse but different version of a prediction tool

2:01

To figure out if I can forecast minor leaguers' likelihood of becoming major leaguers

It very likely won't work, but it sure is fun

Let's answer some quesitons about baseball!

Bill

2:01

Which young OF will be the better career offensive player...C. Pache or A. Kirilloff? Is it close?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Oh, give me Kirilloff on offense for sure

2:02

Pache is probably going to be the better fielder, b/c have you seen him field? But Kirilloff has far better power projection

Derek

2:02

When do we get the definitive FanGraphs broadcast team rankings?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Definitive? Never

But the results of the surveys I posted?

2:03

We're going to do a similar rating thing for radio broadcasts later this month

Then I'm going to post the results of the whole thing in a big old here's who you should listen to and watch article series

(It'll definitely be a series b/c I'm going to include reader comments)

Rob

2:03

I know you posted an article on the angels/orioles trade already, but with a second deal from Anaheim today, do you like the direction they are taking?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Yeah, I'm into it

I don't know who the PTBNL is

2:05

And that can change it, naturally, but I think it makes sense to keep pushing for 2021, and both of these trades do that at reasonable cost

I don't think they'll miss Noe Ramirez's extra years of team control that much

Steve

2:05

Who's number 1 and why is Keith, Gary and Ron on SNY?

Ben Clemens

2:05

No freebies!

2:06

But GKR are absolutely MY favorite broadcast team

Mike Hawk

2:06

Does Tork stick at 3B or does he move across the diamond long term?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Across the diamond for SURE

He played third base a combined zero times across his years at ASU

2:07

He played third a combined zero times in two seasons on the cape

The Tigers can announce whatever they want but I don't think it will make him a third baseman

JordanHicks'UCL

2:07

So for your new prediction of MiLB players making it to the show, how can you factor in the likelihood of trades? Seems like a very unpredictable variable that could change from team to team

Ben Clemens

2:07

Oh it's not that at all, because yeah, no idea how to do that

2:08

It just looks at, say, lines in AA or lo-A or whatever, and tries to predict the likelihood of a player with those statistics at that level and age reaching the majors

Derek

2:08

Lol it was hilarious when Torkelson got announced as a third baseman at the draft. Was there an actual reason the Tigers did that? I'm kind of convinced they were just trolling.

Ben Clemens

2:08

Yeah I'm willing to htink they HOPE he becomes a third baseman

That'd be a big deal, to get that bat at third

It's just not likely

Lefty

2:08

If you were GM of an expansion franchise, could you win more by making your ballpark cavernous and then look for fast line drive hitters?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Probably, but I think it would be marginal. "Fast line drive hitters" aren't exactly undervalued

And I also think that most teams wouldn't be willing to move fans farther from the action for marginal benefit

Dan

2:09

Silly hypothetical. What happens if a good player is dead set on a team that doesn't have a spot for them. Cruz tell his agent he's only signing with Orioles and wants a no trade clause. This is a secret so he still have the same leverage as in the real world he just really like crab cakes. Or Realmuto decides he only wants to play for the Athletics? How much would he have to leave on the table?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think it kind of depends on which team, but let's think about these two hypotheticals

2:11

If Nelson Cruz only wants to play for the Orioles and wants a no-trade clause, well, they didn't pay Hanser Alberto the $2.3 million we estimated in arb

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