JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/22

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat.

2:02

I'm going to keep it fairly short today, because despite it being the offseason I have found a fun project that I really want to get done today, and also pretty much all the free agent signings that have happened are already extensively covered here on the website

Coke Hamels

2:02

What are your expectations for Conforto’s production in 2023?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think he'll start really slowly, there's just a lot of rust to shake off. By midseason I expect him to be basically Michael Conforto, a 120-130 wRC+ hitter

Michael Kay

2:04

I reported that the Yankees are working on something bigger than Carlos Rodon. What was I referring to?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Carlos Rodon wearing platform shoes is my guess

Maybe Correa? Maybe a trade? I really don't know, and the point of that report was to be cryptic

John

2:04

Senga deal seems cheap compared to the other FA pitchers, no?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yeah, I think so? I am a little low on Senga's potential just b/c I think there's risk that his fastball is ordinary in the majors

2:07

He's one of the few contracts where I had a lower projection than the crowd

But given how hot the market has been overall, I'd call this a relative bargain

The opt out complicates things, of course, but if I'm a Mets fan, I'm happy with this deal over trying to get Eovaldi or Bassitt

Moose_Bolton

2:08

The Red Sox handling of the Bogaerts situation indicates:

A. An institutional unwillingness to spend money and go for long contracts in such a way that indicates that future deals may be avoided as well?
B. An unfortunate misstep but one that will be rectified (to some degree) through other deals that show they're still in it to win it?
C. A bit of A and B?
D. Something else

Ben Clemens

2:09

I'm on like 70% A 30% B. I'm honestly a little confused about why they thought their offer was likely to win, I'm not sure whether that is legitimate or just PR fluff

If I'm a Red Sox fan, I'm definitely worried about the team's plans going forward

cpins

2:09

CBT question: If a club sends cash along with a player does the cash count as salary for their CBT math or is it simply a cash-outlay with the full contracted salary carried on the acquiring clubs payroll?

Ben Clemens

2:10

so... I'm quite confident that when a team retains part of a salary, that retained piece of salary counts against the CBT

so if you, let's say, trade a player making $20 million a year and retain half of hte contract, both teams have a $10 million CBT hit from that player

2:11

I believe that cash works the same way, but I'm less certain about that. Cash is generally only used for players who are about to go through arb but don't have a firm salary, though, or in very small trades

Melissa

2:12

Is there a chance we are over-reacting a bit to the "greatest market ever?" Still seems like only the rich are getting richer and there are still a lot of good players that haven't been signed..

Ben Clemens

2:13

Yeah, definitely a possibility. I don't quite buy that it's only the rich getting richer, because players ranked 30-50 in our free agent rankings have beaten both me and the crowdsourced estimates by an aggregate 75 million dollars of guarantees, which is nothing to sneeze at

2:14

But I'd be willing to believe that we're seeing the most desirable free agents, as it were, coming off the board

the ones teams are highest on relative to projection systems, let's say

2:15

and that the remaining group will be left fighting for too few seats at the table

Karth

2:16

Hearing a rumor that the Yankees are ‘kicking the tires’ on a Tatis trade. If Tatis is actually available, there’d have to be at least a dozen interested teams, right? Even with with the contract? The injuries are obviously a concern but I feel like the youth balances that out. And as for the PEDs, if he gets popped again, you don’t pay him for a year, and if he gets popped twice, well, you don’t have to pay him at all!

Kip

2:16

The Tatis extension seems even worse now if he's no longer playing short.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Wide range of opinions here!

2:17

I haven't heard anything about a Tatis trade aside from just the general reports floating around that maybe the Padres have discussed a trade

I'm a big Tatis believer, but even I don't think I'd want to give up a ton of interesting prospects to acquire him given the uncertainty around his health and the PED suspension

2:18

which makes it hard for the Padres to trade him, b/c in my opinion he's one of the best players in baseball

I think it's just a situation that leans towards no trade because of the risk/reward to each side

2:19

no question here, just wanted to say that I’m about to take a stats exam and 80% of what I know about regression and OLS and such comes from your articles and excellent explanations! Thanks for the great work.

Ben Clemens

2:19

Thanks!

Hans Gruber

2:19

Rockies fan, can you plz give me hope?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I love watching baseball in Denver, the fans are great, and Monfort is willing to spend. At some point, he's going to land on something that works, even if it's by accident

Joe

2:21

Rays fan, Conforto? Need some more hitting!

Ben Clemens

2:21

Makes sense to me

David

2:21

When people refer to a number-one or number-two starter, what do they actually mean? I used to think there were 30 number-one starters, one for every team, even if they were unevenly distributed (the Mets have two, the Cubs none). But it seems that there are only a dozen or so pitchers who most people would view as a 1, while there’s no way that most of the 31st-60th best pitchers qualify as a 2. How do you define a 1, 2 etc?

Ben Clemens

2:21

This is a great question, and to be honest one that I don't know the answer to

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