JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/9/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/9/20

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Ben Clemens

1:59

Hey everybody, and welcome to the chat.

2:00

Today will be a mixture of hot stove topics and general baseball stuff, presumably.

party

1

2:02

Don't sleep on board games and food, though.

Or complaining about cold weather.

Into all of those

Malik

2:02

Tarik skubal a top 5 arm next year?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Let's start with a very early and very optimistic question

I mean, no?

2:03

Nothing wrong with hoping for the best, of course, but that's above a 99th percentile outcome I th ink

Nothing about watching him pitch this year made me think "eh I might take him over deGrom next year"

Never say never, but while that CAN happen, it's really unlikely

Unless you mean top 5 on the Tigers, in which case yes definitely

Tejay antone

2:05

Am I getting a shot to start next season?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I assume so

Not necessarily 30 starts

2:06

We're listing Lorenzen as the fifth starter right now, but if I'm the Reds I'd rather keep Lorenzen in relief

Ross Atkins

2:06

what kind of package do you think CLE gets for Lindor?

Uncle Steve

2:06

Hi Ben! What would a deal for Lindor and Carrasco to the Mets look like? Would NYs leverage be so great that Cleveland would simply relish the salary relief and Rosario + JD Davis?

Him again

2:06

Lindor is really good, but is one year of him really worth what I'm seeing proposed? You would be trading for 1 year of, what, somewhere from 4-8 WAR? Is that worth 2 pre-arb regulars who can produce 2-4 WAR for multiple seasons, plus a top prospect? Some are saying that it's worth paying more if you sign him to an extension, but should that actually factor into the acquisition cost at all?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Lot of questions about Lindor, and it's a really tough valuation. The Indians are absolutely the kind of team who would move him for surplus value, but one thing that's tricky is that they don't have an infinitely long window -- even if you think they're just min-maxing, being less competitive in 2021 is a bad deal

2:10

So I think that realistically, if the Indians move him, the deal will have fewer prospects and more controllable contributors

I don't think that JD Davis and Rosario would do it -- Lindor isn't actually that much of a salary burden on the Indians

Maybe those two plus one more useful player

Blue-Collar Tweeker

2:11

I've seen that multiple teams are interested in Yadi. I've also seen that he now wants to play 2 more years. Is there any indication if he's leaning towards staying in St. Louis, or if the Cardinals *want* to keep Yadi 2 more years?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I haven't really seen any indications either way. I'm not sure what I want as a Cards fan, to be honest

If he insists on his current playing time continuing for two years, uh, yikes

2:12

Might as well just light Andrew Knizner's tenure with the club on fire

Gutbuster

2:12

Hi Ben! Who, among free agent pitchers this year, do you think puts up the best fWAR (or other metric if you prefer) over the next five years?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Stroman by a hair over Bauer (I assume Bauer is consensus)

Inaccessible Rail

2:12

I sure hope the Mets don't make the Lindor trade you are describing.

Ben Clemens

2:12

I don't think the Mets are a good fit for a Lindor trade to be honest

2:13

Teams that should be trading for a year of Lindor are teams that have 40 man crunches that would cushion the cost to them, or teams that are a stud away from being clear division favorites

2:14

That's a ton of teams, but I think the Mets just have other ways they can improve the franchise without making that move.

Guest

2:14

Glassnow, Snell, Luis Castillo. Who has the best year in 2021? Thank you.

Ben Clemens

2:14

Castillo by a hair over Snell

AL East is a seriously tough place to pitch and that's the tiebreaker for me

Steve Cohen

2:14

Hey Ben, big fan. I would like Realmuto, Springer, and Bauer. I have the money. Can I get em all? If I miss on one, I'd like Lindor. Thanks, I'll hang up and listen while eating some mid-day shrimp cocktail.

Ben Clemens

2:15

I'm not sure I'd actually like mid-day shrimp cocktail? I think the Mets could get all three, though I'm low on Springer compared to most

Mets not getting Realmuto would qualify as a surprise to me, though

It's the perfect combination of 'new owner needs to do something' and 'clear best player'

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