JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/16/20

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

I guess we're going to talk about Drew Smyly some, since he just signed with the Braves.

2:02

But given that it's the offseason, I hope to focus on my favorite topics, namely board games and how I'm not very good at cooking but like learning recipes

See! You! Later!

2:02

$11 Million for Smyly? That's more than double the median FG crowdsource or MLBTR's estimate (Craig had him at two years). What are your thoughts?

andrew t

2:02

What do you think of the Drew Smyly signing?

Dave

2:03

$11M seems like a lot for a guy who doesn't have any vowels in his last name.

Ben Clemens

2:03

What the heck, let's just rip the band aid off

I kind of get it? I don't know that I'd pay what the Braves did but they really want more pitching

2:05

They already missed Robbie Ray, which means the market for these types of starters is not huge

2:06

I think the idea is if you overpay for Smyly by $4 million, sure!

That's not the best outcome ever but certainly not the worst.

Appa Yip Yip

2:07

Did you have "market being driven by Mets and Blue Jays" on your off season bingo card?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Surprisingly, kind of? I thought the Jays would be in the pitching market and the Mets in every market

Daron

2:08

Does seeing a team willing to pay Drew Smyly $11 million make it more surprising nobody claimed Brad Hand for $10 million?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm definitely not in the majority here, but I think I'd rather pay Smyly $11 million than Hand $10 million

Basically I don't really buy Hand as an elite reliever anymore

2:09

He still had good run prevention numbers, but the underlying stuff is starting to slip and the drop would be severe

Also, his upside is that of a very good but not elite reliever

2:10

Whereas you can convince yourself that Smyly can unlock a little more, though I'm always shocked at how old he is. He still feels a bit prospect-y b/c he keeps not fulfilling his potential, basically

Captain Moonlight

2:10

Hey Ben! Enjoyed your pod segment with Eric. One thing that came up a few times that I’d like to hear more about (another pod segment?) is what Rule 5 game theory will look like this year. Seems like teams will probably hope to through since they haven’t been seen, but then maybe there’s opportunities to be aggressive in drafting unusually talented guys?

Ben Clemens

2:11

It's going to be really interesting to see what people do this year on Rule 5. My baseline assumption is that teams will be protecting more people this year because they'll have more open slots, the result of the non-tender wave I'm expecting

2:12

If that's the case, that'll cool the R5 draft down b/c there will be less available interesting prospects, which is kind of boring but probably not a bad assumption

Dave

2:12

On the recipe front, there is a slow-cooker Pork Banh Mi recipe on Delish that will make you feel like a badass if you're into that kind of thing.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I love slow cooker recipes, one of the biggest level-up moments I've had in cooking was buying a slow cooker

That sounds awesome, and though I don't eat much red meat, I could see making an exception for some delicious pork banh mi

Uncle Steve

2:14

Did you see the Trevor Bauer YT video about Steve Cohen? Would it be disappointing at this point if he didn’t sign with the Mets?

Trevor Bauer

2:14

Who will I sign with?

Ben Clemens

2:14

It does feel like the tea leaves are lining up that way, huh?

2:15

That said, trying to predict Bauer based on a video seems foolish, he tweets out all kinds of random stuff that points to one team or another

2:16

I think that the Mets will be in on him, but I kind of expect them to prioritize Realmuto > Bauer > Springer

So if they get Realmuto early, or if he's still on the market but telling them he's interested, I dunno if they go for Bauer

Appa Yip Yip

2:16

Do you think the Astros scandal sticks to Springer, or does it just kind of wash away once he's in a new uniform?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think it's going to wash away assuming he is decent for the next 2-3 years

If he's an average hitter next year, it will only get louder

2:17

smyly 2020 = rich hill 2015? might be rich in a depressed market for braves, but they'd surely take what hill did in year+1 for smyly.

Ben Clemens

2:17

That would be a pretty amazing outcome, obviously

2:18

That's what they're hoping for, but the floor of 'semi-competent innings eater' isn't the worst either

Adam

2:18

I would love for the Dodgers to bring back both Joc and Kiké but I'd also be happy for each of those guys to get a full-time gig somewhere. Do you think there's a market for either/both of them as more than just a platoon bat/super-utility guy?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I think yes to both, actually. Some team is going to try Joc out as an everyday outfielder, because if he can do it, he'll be value

2:20

Hernandez, I'm less sure of, but I think someone will offer him a utility-ish number but also the chance for everyday PT

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