JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/15/21

Ben Clemens

2:58

Hey everybody, let's get the chat started a little bit early.

We'll talk Eduardo Rodriguez some I'm sure, but I'm writing the deal up for tomorrow, so I'm not going to go into TOO much detail about it

Norm

2:59

What % chance do you give ERod of having the best season next year out of him, Ray, Gausman, and Stroman?

Ben Clemens

2:59

Eh, 20%? I'm pretty high on Stroman

And think that Rodriguez is likely to be steady, but not necessarily spike a huge season

Giant Gonzales

2:59

Talk me off the proverbial cliff. As a BoSox fan, I think that the ERod contract out there at 5/$77 is reasonable. As of now, it's Sale (1 TJ), Eovaldi (2 TJs), then Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock. I thought signing a starter, extending Devers, and padding out the bullpen were priorities, but I still don't know why the Sox would match that contract. That's essentially Eovaldi after 3 good months when he hit FA plus a year. I'm confused??

Mike

2:59

I know the opt out softens the blow, but are you surprised E-Rod signed this deal so early?. Feel like he could have gotten at least $5m more AAA

Ben Clemens

3:01

I'd say the option is a pretty big deal

With IP incentives, he could make between 14 and 16 million per year over the next two years and then try a better free agency market if he does well

3:02

If he doesn't, he can just keep it. The optionality is especially valuable given that he's signing pre-CBA

Giant Gonzales

3:02

Why didn't you have E-Rod on your top 50 free agents but had Eduardo Rodriguez ranked 13?? That's some midwest bias!!!

Ben Clemens

3:02

Joe

3:03

Are you of the opinion that the opt out is bad for teams? I actually feel it's the opposite: you get a lower overall price and if they do opt out your risk is limited in later years.

Ben Clemens

3:03

I am of the opinion that an opt out is bad for teams because it is bad for teams!

If the player is worse than expected, they stay

If they're better than expected, they leave

It's a bad deal

3:04

Like, they get compensated for it, it's not just pure money lost

Joe

3:04

But if you don't have an opt out the player stays anyway.

Ben Clemens

3:04

Yes but that means they also stay when they're really good

This isn't really up for debate, I know people make this point but it's just wrong. The Bogaerts contract is not better for the Red Sox because of its opt out

He was good, he's opting out, they're losing value

Derek

3:04

E-Rod to the Tigers seems like an awesome deal for Detroit. Do you think the move portends an active offseason for them?

Ben Clemens

3:04

I sure do!

3:05

I'm writing up team-by-team shopping lists for the offseason, and I had top starters at the top of Detroit's list before this signing

It portends that they're looking for a shortstop too, I think

Giant Gonzales

3:05

With the impending shut out, do you think we see more of the top end FA (Correa/Seager/etc) sign, mid class guys (ERod obvs/ Stroman/ Baez) or bottom of the top 50 go first before the impending shut down?

Ben Clemens

3:07

I was definitely wrong on this, but I thought only the bottom would sign before the CBA

I guess the opt out after two years sweetens the deal for E Rod, and the low AAV sweetens the deal or Detroit, but I'm still surprised

Wicho

3:07

The Frazier trade and Hosmer trade rumors suggest that the Padres want to move Cronenworth to first but wouldn't that waste some of his value?

Ben Clemens

3:08

It would, but they're faced with a situation where they'll need to sacrifice value somewhere unless they can get a first baseman whose bat they like more than Frazier's back

I don't think that should be hard, I guess they think it's a little harder than that

3:09

I just don't think they're moving Hosmer, though

They seem to think they should get value back, or that it's not worth trading him if they're losing prospects in the deal, or something

David (formerly Sonoma State University)

3:10

How does the timing of this deal impact your percentage chance of a shut down? What were your "pre-ERod deal" and post chances of it happening?

Ben Clemens

3:10

Oh, doesn't impact it at all

This is just something that made sense for both sides, and it's not as though the Tigers knew the exact chance of reaching an agreement before making this deal. E Rod certainly didn't

I think it just made sense and they didn't feel like waiting, plus both sides can do okay on this deal even in a different CBA

Jonny

3:10

How do you actually value the $ value of the option? In other words, what would be the equivalent value of the E-Rod contract without any opt out?

Ben Clemens

3:11

I wrote about this a few years ago

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