JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/24

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Being that it's early January, I'm gonna keep it relatively short today

Say 45 minutes or so

but let's use that time wisely

Ken

2:01

With their additions, are the A's legit contenders for a playoff spot in 2025?

Ben Clemens

2:01

No. I think they're still gonna be sub-10% or so

2:02

But more respectable than most of the recent versions of the A's, nonetheless

Dan Sanchez

2:02

The Orioles have starter depth but still need an ace, and the Padres, who will lose Dylan Cease next year, could use a young OF bat. Would something like Heston Kjerstad and Dean Kremer, maybe with a third piece, get it done?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I think that would get it done, but I don't really see them trading Kjerstad

2:03

It's just incompatible with the way they deal from their prospects; Ortiz was not exactly surplus but pretty blocked by other interesting prospects at the very least

Kjerstad feels more likely to be a real contributor this year, which would make the trade less of a pure upgrade. that seems to me to be the way they like to make deals

davealden53

2:03

I know you think Eguy Rosario can have a future if he can get unblocked. Roster Resource now shows him as the Padres' DH, but this doesn't seem like a great fit. Does he remain trade bait, perhaps an extra piece in a Dylan Cease deal?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think that'd be awkward b/c a team acquiring Cease is probably a playoff contender, and that doesn't sound like a team that's going to just slam Eguy into a starting spot

2:05

I don't absolutely hate DH for him, but i think that AB's will be hard to come by there, so yeah, I'd love to see him in a spot where he has regular infield playing time

Idiotic Failson

2:05

The Yankees can't really be assuming DJLM will be playing 3rd again this year, can they? CAN THEY?!?!?!?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I really think that they're going to acquire a bigger-ticket 3B still

their roster just makes so little sense with DJLM

it's leaving an obvious point of weakness in a winter where many of their moves seem to be about shoring up weaknesses

Dan Sanchez

2:07

What kind of contract do you think Framber Valdez could be looking at next year? Same age at FA as Snell (32), less stuff but more durable. 4/120? 5/140? More?

Ben Clemens

2:07

man, I'd be really worried about giving Framber a big deal. That's a real change of opinion for me, I feel like I was one of the high analysts on him for years, but the last 18 months or so have me wondering how he's going to handle a change in stuff

his fastball seems to need a very particular shape to work, and when he lost it for a while, he was not very good

2:08

I guess I'd say that he'll probably get something in the range you named, but I would hope not to be the team giving it to him

I think it's wrong-way risk. I don't think he's likely to deliver you a huge windfall at that contract, but coming in way low feels possible to me

davealden53

2:08

There aren't any health updates on Edward Cabrera and he's projected as the #2 starter for the Marlins. Do you believe that possibility? Can he truly stay healthy and productive or is the die cast?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I do not believe that possibility

2:09

Not that it can't happen... but I'd bet against it at reasonable odds

Alby

2:09

Biggest surprise of the offseason so far?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I think it's the A's turning into aggressive acquirers in starting pitching

Ken

2:10

The A's have a lot of starters on their 40-man roster: Severino, Springs, Sears, Bido, Ginn, Estes, Spence, Basso, and Harris. Barring a trade or injury, Severino, Springs, and Sears are locks for the rotation. But what should they do with the rest of them? None of them really have anything left to prove or work on in the minors. Should the A's experiment with a staff of tandem starters where two pitchers work 5 innings and 4 innings, respectively, each game, instead of the traditional 5-man rotation and 8-man bullpen?

Ben Clemens

2:10

For example!

2:11

Mmmmm, no, I don't think that makes a ton of sense unless they have buy-in from everyone. I think more realistically, some of these guys are going to get hurt and some won't play enough to be in the majors.

Like, Hogan Harris is on this list. He's 28 and every single run prevention stat was above 5.50 in sizable minor league playing time last year

2:12

I feel like I know a lot about baseball, and I had to look up who Basso was

dude was also getting shelled in the minors

2:13

This is not a 'we have 8 true established starters' situation, I think that they should just go the normal route and let injuries and underperformance make things work

wmquirk

2:13

Guardians got a steal on Shane Bieber this year after seeing Boyd and Morton's contracts, among others. I would think he has to be gone at the deadline if they aren't sure contenders by then

Ben Clemens

2:13

I agree with you here

2:14

I was very surprised to see him sign for that deal given how excited teams have been to pay potential top-end starter

That said, I get it from his standpoint. It's nice to rehab in a situation you're familiar with, and the money/years aren't terrible

I think this was a case where the potential future earnings bump from having your rehab go well outstrips the extra few bucks you could make this offseason

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