JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

powered by

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hello everyone, and welcome to today's Astros disciplinary chat.

I imagine we'll talk about that a lot, but let me throw in a few questions from the queue that caught my eye first.

Steven S

2:00

Hi Ben! The Rays have made a lot of interesting moves this offseason, and have acquired a number of players they believe can be impact players in 2020. Out of their acquisitions - Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena, and Hunter Renfroe - who do you believe will make the most impact in 2020? And, do you think any of these players can compile a 3+ WAR in 2020?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey! Can? Absolutely yes. Any of the four of them could put up 3 WAR, though I think Martinez is least likely to, as he'll be the skinny end of a platoon.

I'm really high on Arozarena, and have been for a while. He's kind of my prospect white whale as a Cards fan.

So I'll say he's most likely.

VEB

2:02

Miss you.

Ben Clemens

2:02

<3

ranger

2:02

Thoughts on how an Arenado to Cardinals deal could work in terms of prospects/assets involved

Cito's Mustache

2:02

I'm having a hard time believing the reported offer of Liberatore, CarMart, Hudson & O'Neill for Arenado considering he could opt-out in a couple years. Doesn't that seem like a crazy steep price without assurances Arenado would stay in STL? And do you think it's possible they negotiate/restructure and push the opt-out back a year or two?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Guess we're starting on a Cardinals note. I don't think that rumor is credible - it's been batted around a lot, but it was basically a Chicago radio host talking off the cuff? It was followed by a trade idea where Arenado came to the Cubs while Kris Bryant played center field.

2:04

In terms of assets involved, I think they'd try to do something about the opt out, as in Arenado opts in pre-emptively and that sweetens the pot. I don't think the opt out is particularly likely to come into play given the deal but it would be a really poor risk for any team to trade a lot of assets for someone who might vanish soon.

Also, even without the opt out, that package looks high to me. That's a lot of good, controllable players.

Only STL in on Nolan?

2:04

I understand why LA has been shut out from Nolan trade talks, but shouldn't their be other serious suitors? Rangers? Nationals? Braves? Seems like there should be more smoke if nothing else to drive up the price for the Cards. Please don't point to those ridiculous Cubs scenarios.

Ben Clemens

2:06

I think there's probably more going on than we think. Never say never when it comes to the Rockies front office, but the plan is probably to just call a lot of people? I don't think the Nats are exactly a fit, because they don't have deadweight contracts to send back in a reasonable way and seem very concerned about their tax hit.

Rangers, Braves - they should be in. Everyone should be in! Arenado is great.

2:08

Every team should be at least showing the Rockies something. They're a very non-traditional front office; you never know when they'll value your 40 FV depth piece as a premium guy.

That's probably hyperbole, but I don't know, the way they manage their depth chart...

2-D

2:08

I can't think of a good question right now, but I must be apart of the first ever non-playoff Ben Clemens chat.

I guess I can ask what other non-baseball related topics you might enjoy discussing?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Welcome! In terms of non-baseball topics, the sky is the limit (other than politics, which meh). Economics? Board games? Card games? Dogs? Please dogs.

Living in NY/SF?

Astros got off easy...

2:09

They cheated their way to a WS title. In a game where the difference between the worst team in the league and the best team in the league is ~30% (by win percentage), the smallest margins tip the scales. Should have stripped them of the title.

Ben Clemens

2:11

What does stripping a title do? Meg and I discussed this a bit last week, but I just don't think it matters. We'll stlil know who won the World Series in 2017. Are you going to take the banner down in the stadium? I just think it's meaningless. This penalty is basically salting the earth, and I like the way they punished ownership and management most.

I would shy away from coming down on the players too hard, and I'm glad MLB did. I would have preferred more fine and less draft pick loss, but apparently it's the maximum allowed fine, so there you go.

jake

2:12

I live in NY!

Ben Clemens

2:13

I sadly don't anymore; my wife and I moved to San Francisco last year. I loved living in New York, though, and the vast majority of my friends still live there. I feel like it gets a bad rap for being noisy and busy; that kind of fades away when you're actually there, and if you want to it's just, well, a city where you can get whatever you want.

Not cheap, though!

2:14

But jake, I have a confession. I only took this question to lead into your next one

jake

2:14

Analysts and FanGraphs writers need nicknames. Why do we get to call Javy Baez "El Mago" but we don't get to use cool nicknames for you guys? I'm not saying that your normal names aren't really cool, I mean, they are cool. But nicknames --> more fun!

Ben Clemens

2:15

This feels like it could have endless variations, but I'm brainstorming now.

My mind went here first:

Along that vein, I gave Talk to Transformer a few baseball nicknames and prayed it would understand and make up some new ones.

The result was magical. I think my favorite is Tom Seaver, whose nickname, as we all know, was The Devil's Prawn.

2:16

A bumbling, bumbling boy is pretty excellent

2:17

More realistically, though, we don't have nicknames because we aren't all that interesting.

Javy Baez is el mago because he literally looks magical on the field.

Would Dan be 'Big Models'?

Would I be el free agent analysis?

2:18

I don't think there's quite enough stuff going on here that isn't just 'here are some words about baseball' to make for good nicknames

Average sports fan

2:18

What do I have to do to help my local sports team attain public funds?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat