JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

Ben Clemens

2:03

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I just got back from a dog walk, so didn't have time to pre-populate the chat. I'm going to let the queue fill up for a few minutes before we start.

Erik

2:06

What stats have you found yourself looking at more often recently?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I'm looking more at various versions of hard hit rates for batters

I especially like this spray angle aware version that Alex Chamberlain wrote about earlier this year:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/now-lets-tweak-hard-hit-rate-using-spray-a...

Basically hard hit rate will give pull hitters a natural advantage; pulled balls in the air are hit harder

2:08

so if you're looking for someone with a chance to improve, looking for someone who mashes without maxing out their pull rate is a good place to start

On the pitching side, I've been looking a lot more at individual pitch whiff rates, looking for really good offerings rather than a pitcher's overall performance

2:09

My thinking there is that mediocre pitches can be tinkered with

That's been happening more and more

But great pitches? Those are a really good thing to build a foundation off of

Daniel

2:09

If you had to pick, one way or the other: Do the Giants make it past the NLDS?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I'll take no, as that's the smart money side

Our odds hvae them 26.6% to win the NLDS or better

Two reasons: one is that the Dodgers are right on their butts to win the division, and if that happens, it's an obvious no

2:11

The other reason is that if they DO win the division, that likely sets them up for a winner-take-all with the Dodgers

Not great either!

It's really rough the way things shook out for the Giants that they have the best record in baseball... and a two-game lead on a juggernaut that they'll likely have to face in the playoffs no matter what they do

Jeff

2:12

If you’re checking out pitchers’ pitch whiff rates, surely you are on the Michael Lorenzen as SP wagon with I? That changeup! That 4 seam!

Ben Clemens

2:14

I was earlier in his career, the missed time makes me slightly more skeptical.

Also tbh his changeup doesn't really jump out to me. Now, the cutter he's using more this year? Into it

Zach

2:14

I saw you say a couple chats ago that statcast's expected statistics ignore horizontal angle. Don't you think that's an issue given that horizontal angle absolutely matters in terms of battled ball outcome?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yeah, it just depends what you're using it for