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Apr4_2025 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
12:01
Hi everyone, happy Friday! We're officially a week into the season here, looking forward to a weekend full of baseball, including a nice slate of games this afternoon. I see some good stuff in the queue already, let's dive in...
Hoyasaxa
12:04
Hi- 16 mixed keeper with obp, SOLDs and 1200 min IP. Drop Mead for Robert Garcia - we have 8 reserve and 3 minors slots. Mead a lottery ticket — will he have value this year in production; Garcia would be fourth SOLDs guy, likely only active if bad SP matchup or did a lot of SOLDs volume. Thanks!
Ray Murphy
12:04
I like Mead as a lottery ticket coming off that hot spring. I had hoped he would play a little more in the first week. But B. Lowe is healthy and hitting well. I've been hoping we'd see him in the OF and Mead at 2B, but that hasn't happened yet. Seems to me like Garcia is a dime-a-dozen SOLDS source, so I'd give Mead a little more rope. If you decide to swap him for a reliever, those guys are always available even if Garcia specifically isn't.
Brian K
12:06
Hi Ray, Happy Friday, 5X5 16 Team mixed. Is Charlie Morton toast as a SP even though is giving me 1 category in K. Your thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:06
He was pretty flammable last year, and the HR ball got him again yesterday. I wouldn't call him "toast" just yet, but he's volatile and I think it's pretty tough to figure out when the blowups are coming. I'd probably look to get away from him just because he's so likely to frustrate me.
Bob
12:07
Is Cam Smith going to turn it around?
Ray Murphy
12:07
LOL, easy on the panic button. It's 17 PA. He's got a lot more rope than that.
Kasey
12:09
Hey, Ray - Thanks for the chat. Need to replace an OF in NL only league, no reserves. Slim pickens, but who looks like the best choice to fill in for the next 60 days among these - P.Smith, Isaac Collins?, J.Rojas, L.Matos or Moniak?
Ray Murphy
12:09
I love to plug our tools when I can during these chats, so here's a shoutout to our Recent Player Usage tool. Pavin stands out in this group... he's started against all RHPs so far, but you don't noticed that because the DBacks have drawn 4 of 7 LH starters. That will level off and Pavin should get plenty of run. Love him among this group. (Moniak in COL intrigues a bit too).
Sam
12:13
What’s going on with Dylan Crews? Does his 0-18 (with 10 Ks!) start change your outlook on the rest of his 2025 season and/or his long-term effectiveness?
Ray Murphy
12:13
Haven't actually seen him, but Brent mentioned to me last weekend that he looked completely lost at the plate. I tend to focus on what the team does in these situations... they haven't sat him down yet, which I guess is encouraging. He did get dropped to 9th yesterday against an LHP, after batting 2nd against an LHP last weekend. Hard to argue with that, but if they keep running him out there, it tells me they think he can hit his way out of it. I'm fine with you sitting him down for the short term if you have the option.
SHM
12:14
Does Dennis Santana have the skills to grab hold of, and hang on to, the Pirates closer role?
Ray Murphy
12:14
Our revised projections are splitting the saves pretty evenly between Santana and Holderman. Santana of course got the opp the other night and converted it, but he's going to have to improve the 3 BB/3 K ratio if he wants to keep the gig. As we noted in his Forecaster box, he was awesome in 2H last year. If that guy shows up, he can absolutely run with the job.
Sam
12:16
Do you think Tony Santillan will become the bona fide closer in Cincinnati this year? Or do you think Tito’s early use of him in a “fireman” role will stick and make it hard for him to accumulate saves? Welcome any general impressions of Tito’s bullpen use/approach so far.
Ray Murphy
12:16
Tito has been pretty clear in announcing that Santillan is the fireman, and I think you have to take him at his word. That certainly doesn't preclude some stray saves going to TS, and it's always possible that everyone else flames out and force Tito to put Santillan in the 9th. But I wouldn't hold out much hope for that happening soon.
Gaucho
12:18
11-team NL 5x5 with deep bench.  Chasing SV. I have D. Santana and can pick up Holderman, but I would have to drop A. Frazier who is filling in for an injured MI who should return to active duty in 2-3 weeks. So essentially I would be giving up all hitter stats at this position for 2-3 weeks. Worth a shot?  How much FAAB?
Ray Murphy
12:18
On one hand, I'm not sure how much more than a zero you get from Frazier. On other hand, I think I like Santana's shot in PIT over Holderman, and you've already got him locked up. I'd probably stand pat, or at least keep the FAAB bid small.
Ron
12:20
Hi Ray,  Who do want for for 4th OF/ UT in a 12-team mixed 8x8 where we also score OBP, SLG and K's:  Soler (CDG $12) or Conforto (CDG $2).  Despite what CDG says, Conforto is off to much better start and playing vL
Ray Murphy
12:20
I don't care who's off to a better start... Conforto playing more than we project is maybe more actionable. I'm willing to disagree with CDG, but $10 difference is too much to ignore. Stick with Soler.
Guest
12:21
Any “sixth starters” you see getting a chance soon? R Nelson? D Festa?
Ray Murphy
12:21
I mean.... all of them? We're just getting to second time through rotations this weekend. Guys get hurt, guys get bumped out of rotations all the time. If you're sitting on one of these guys, I can't tell you whose chance is coming next, but I can tell you their turns will all come around soon enough.
Peter
12:25
Hi Ray, 
Thanks for answering this question. To be upfront I also posted this question on the Forum.

24 team league, 5x5 w/OBP, Sv+Hld, W+QS. Roster 14H, 12 P, No reserves but extensive minor roster.

The FA pool is very thin, but I have Roden on my minor roster. I could replace Noel with Roden but Noel is very unlikely to clear waivers. Noel's performance has been dismal so far but it's early days and I can wait for a couple of weeks before making a move. HQ RoY projections don't favour Noel greatly though he accumulates more than twice the ABs of Roden. An alternate data source which I trust (FG) has almost exactly the reverse situation.

Noel's CT% bothers me a lot. But if the power plays up, I can live with it. Granted, it's 10 days BUT only 9 ABs and .182 OBP compared to Roden's 16 ABs and .368 OBP. I know, I know, so much can change in the next few weeks.

Small sample sizes, I know, with all the usual caveats but Noel has never impressed me as a good hitter.

Thoughts? Advice?
Ray Murphy
12:25
Big Christmas was always going to be a boom-or-bust roster option. Too early to say he's busting, but I'm a little bummed they haven't snuck him a start vR just yet... he's been in lineup both times vLH SP, but no starts vR. Roden's getting more run and has a cute little fill-the-box profile. I'd probably make that switch.
james rockford
12:26
On the periphery with this one.  How come there were so many Cubs fans at the A's games?  Is this typical?  Traveling groupies?
Ray Murphy
12:26
Hmmm, some combo of a) Cubs fans travel well, b) chance to see them in a new/unique venue, c) doesn't seem like the A's have much of a base in Sacto, so tix were accessible.
james rockford
12:30
I grabbed LSeverino in my AL only league.  Unplanned.  Is he a solid #3 and will help me more than hurt me?  Or is this wishful thinking?  (also exact same thing with SArrighetti who I also grabbed)
Ray Murphy
12:30
Don't hate Severino, tho will feel better if the early BB% issues normalize soon. Love Arrighetti.
Rocky
12:31
Better ROS:  Wilson Contreras or Ivan Herrera?
Ray Murphy
12:31
The answer in March was Contreras, so it's still Contreras. Five games doesn't change a thing.
Chaz Rhinehold
12:33
12 team H2H points redraft league looking to replace Morel with either V Scott III or Hunter Goodman. How would you rank all 3 for ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:33
I'm becoming a Scott believer... Scott, Morel, Goodman.
Angel
12:34
More productive PAs ROS:  Lawler or Mayo?  and how many?
Ray Murphy
12:34
Any answer to this question would be a complete guess, sorry. Here's a hot take: neither guy's next MLB PA will be with their current team.
bronze Firebird
12:36
I look at box scores on espn usually.  Last year they had injury updates for the games on the Recap but do not this year.  Can you recommend a couple of websites you like for Box scores and recaps (possibly with injury updates for the game)?
Ray Murphy
12:36
This is a great question, as I'm looking for a better box score presentation as well. I use MLB app, which is fine on the phone but I hate their desktop presentation. Would love some crowd suggestions on this one...
Jeff
12:37
Hi Ray:  In 5x5 12-team league, would you be patient or buy I. Herrera or Jeffers over Realmuto?
Ray Murphy
12:37
Patience, grasshopper. See Contreras/Herrera answer above.
for real
12:39
hi Ray, thank you for taking my question. Can you rank in order of preference these players (d santana kahnle bender hicks paris mangum) for their fantasy contribution this season?
Ray Murphy
12:39
Kind of apples and oranges here. Among the closers, I think Kahnle has a chance to run with that DET job, so Kahnle-Santana-Bender. Mangum over Paris for me too. No idea which Hicks that is.
WayOffBase
12:41
AL-only 5x5  If you were middle of the pack in Saves, what percentage of your FAAB would you spend on Kahnle?
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