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2024 FanGraphs Prospect Week Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Good morning from Tempe! Thank you for checking out all of our Prospect Week work for the site, including this chat.
Let's get right into it.
Andrew
12:03
You're a bit lower on Colt Emerson than a lot of the industry it seems. What does he need to show to get up into that ~50 range? And thoughts on Jeter Martinez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
I like Emerson a lot, ideally he performs a little better versus belt-high fastballs going forward. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching better than that, slider will flash. Long-term dev project, last I saw arm action was super long
Jesse
12:06
Do the Mets have a top farm system after eating all that money for prospects during the trade deadline last year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
More like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox
Free Kyle Manzardo
12:07
What's the beef with Kyle Manzardo, man
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Not enough beef, as in power, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. More a 45 type
Angelus Novus
12:08
Why is Hollday (70) graded higher than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you take over the next decade, from that group?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Better perceived chance to stay at SS than I had of Gunnar at that point. Tough not to take Gunnar of those three in this moment.
JDP's biggest fan
12:08
What's holding back JDP from being a top 100 prospect? Just need to see a bit more power in game?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Underlying swing and miss was worse than his surface K%, in a corner OF spot I want you to prove the hit/power combo is real more than he has to this point, force my hand. Pretty mediocre feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic power. There's still a good chance he pops, just hasn't yet.
Morgan (NY)
12:10
Which prospects currently ranked below 75 have the best chance to enter the top 25 next season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
The teenagers in that range
Jon Kay
12:10
Do chats count as comments? No real question, I appreciate what you do. Hopefully you can stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
lol some of them do have a comment section vibe
Ben Schneider
12:10
Hi Eric, thanks for all the great work. After a strong year at the plate, why do you think Connor Norby is not a 50 FV player, and how does he fit on the Orioles' roster?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
LF for me, not enough offense to be a 50 there. Either he or Mountcastle needs to move for him to play, probably.
Chris
12:11
How far was Jose Fleury from your pick to click next year ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
He's super weird. This is a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of really excellent changeups and cutters, pretty even pitch mix. I don't think it'll work in a way that he'll ever be on the Top 100, he only sits like 91 mph, but he should be a really deceptive long reliever
Maybe like Yusmeiro Petit type?
Roman
12:14
What are your thoughts on some Zips100 prospects that didn't make your list? I saw Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don't think he's top15 in SD's system
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Jagger will be on the Another 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical frame, 91-96 across a whole start, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ cost him a lot of time. Needs to show he can hold that velo across actual SP innings and dev a third pitch
Jon Kay
12:15
I like to think about your ratings for FV as functional normal distributions for outcomes and assume that the value you settle on is the most likely. Is there a way that you could add SD on your evalus as a way of measuring floor and celling? This guy plays great CF defense so it limits is floor and therefore I put a 55 FV on it but the SD has more skewness? Or is this just dressing up what is a qualitative process with opinion values to turn it quantitive?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
One of the former prospect writers at the site tried to do a version of this and people felt it was super confusing to have floor/likely/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is a little easier and doesn't feel like you're abdicating making an actual call
eye test appreciator
12:18
saw an interesting quote from chris antonetti saying good things about estevan florial. almost every prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for dead (myself included). anything change in his skillset or is antonetti just wishcasting
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Swing changed last year, big time lefty power hitting his physical prime. I really liked him as a buy-low for them, has what they need in power. Could catch lightning in a bottle for a couple of years while he's peaking like this. Don't think he's suddenly a star, he's still very flawed with K's, but could have Raley/Siri run here. He isn't prospect eligible anymore, hasn't been since 2022.
Ryan
12:20
Could teams value prospects from Wake Forest less because they assume they have already matched out their skills with the pitching lab?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I dunno if "value less" is exactly right but "project less" probably would be.
Lasres
12:20
did you forget Robby Snelling existed when doing the top 100?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
pitch performance is pretty generic, fastball velo is below MLB average, feels like another Ryan Weathersesque PR campaign is working on hard-blinking online folks
Too Many Mooks
12:22
Eric, really loved the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you can do a version of it every year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Hope to do a couple versions of it throughout each year, teams lists, draft ranks, etc. gracias
dave
12:23
How much of a negative effect has the elimination of short-season leagues had on player development? What percentage of teams would choose to have a short-season team, if allowed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
I think it harms the level of play in A-ball because guys who wouldn't have climbed through short season end up there. It provides fewer players opportunity to develop but maybe doesn't hurt any individual's dev? I think the cash rich teams would love to have more affiliates, especially ones who know they're good at dev. Percentage wise...
12:26
lol going thru a team checklist in my head, would BOS pay for another affiliate at this point? jeepers
probably like half the teams? There are definnitely people in baseball who still think there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as much of dev as possible to college baseball. I bet we see further reduction and restructuring next CBA
Luke
12:27
Curious what happened with Ben Brown (top 50 for you end of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command issues as a long term problem?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Enough that it limits his role, yeah. Not enough that it makes him bad.
wheelhouse
12:27
Do a specific org's specific flaws ever impact your assessment of an individual prospect? I look at reports of what Spencer Jones needs to improve upon to reach his ceiling and see contact rates, breaking/offspeed recognition, and ground balls, and those flaws have seemingly been endemic in the yankees' org for half a decade now with no success stories.
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